A major winter storm will impact the Twin Cities, with several inches of snow likely with severe travel impacts expected
Multiple rounds of snow and a major winter storm are forecast to impact the Twin Cities over the next week which will bring a very high certainty of heavy snow with at least 8 inches of snow being possible across the entire Twin Cities metro between Tuesday evening through Thursday evening. The combination of blowing and drifting snow in addition to the high possibility of several inches of snow will bring major travel impacts across the region by the middle of the week.
Round 1 - Quick Moving Clipper
The first round of snow will work into the Twin Cities region beginning around Monday morning as a quick moving low pressure clipper works across northern Minnesota and into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and northern Wisconsin. While the majority of impacts from this clipper will be felt across northern Minnesota, the Twin Cities metro area could see 0.5-1.0 inches of snow from this system. Minimal compared to what is to come, but it could be enough to bring pockets of slick conditions throughout the day with lingering flurries possible from this clipper through Tuesday morning.
Rounds 2 and 3 - Major Winter Winter
The second and third rounds of snow will be associated with a major winter storm that will develop as a strong area of low pressure works across the Midwest. On the north end of the system, several rounds of heavy snow will be possible. On the mixing line across central Iowa, southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and southern lower Michigan pockets of significant ice could be possible. Across the southern United States, severe weather is possible.
The second round of snow will work into Minnesota on Tuesday into Wednesday as a front develops and works across the region ahead of the low pressure system. A narrow band of heavy snow will be possible as this works across the region and depending on where that deformation zone, or band of heavy snow, sets up is where we will see the highest snow totals from that round. According to the latest model data, this zone of heaviest snow looks to be located along a line from the Twin Cities and along I-94 and points south in central Minnesota to I-90 in southern Minnesota and points north. While the timing and location of the heaviest snow can change as the storm is still a couple of days out, there is a good certainty that at least 4-6 inches with locally higher amounts possible within that first round.
The third round of widespread heavy snow is forecast for the Twin Cities during the day Wednesday and will continue through Thursday evening. During this round, widespread heavy snow is forecast across a large portion of central Minnesota and into central Wisconsin making travel across these regions extremely dangerous from Tuesday night through Thursday evening. Several inches of snow will once again be possible with a high certainty of another 6-8 inches at the very least from this third round. A handful of locations would even see double-digit totals from this second round, but that will be dependent on where the heaviest band sets up.
Round 4 - Minor accumulations possible Friday
As the winter storm exits the region late Thursday, another quick-moving area of low pressure could work across the Midwest Friday afternoon into late Friday evening, bringing another light 1-2 inches of snow.
Winter Storm Watches Coming
It is likely that Winter Storm Watches will begin to get issues for the region beginning late this morning and into this afternoon for the upcoming winter storm. If you have travel plans beginning Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening, I would recommend changing those to Monday or Tuesday morning or to Friday and into the weekend, because travel from Tuesday evening through Thursday evening will not be recommended.
