Latest update on Twin Cities’ severe weather chances for Today and Tomorrow
TWIN CITIES - In the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center, a Marginal Risk for severe weather remains in place across the Twin Cities region with the great threat time for isolated strong to severe storms expected during the afternoon and into the late evening hours. For tomorrow, July 4th, there remains a Slight Risk for severe weather over the region with again the greatest threat time for severe weather coming during the late afternoon to evening hours as a weak cold front works across the region. We will cover in greater detail the severe threat for today and tomorrow below.
Marginal Risk(1 out of 5) Severe Weather Threat - Monday [Today]
A weak band of showers and maybe a storm or two will work toward the Twin Cities Metro early this morning from the northwest. As this line looks to reach the far northwest Metro, this activity looks to dissipate as any instability to support this activity will be limited. This activity would likely dissipate by around 10 AM at the latest. No severe weather threat is expected from any of this activity, but it could lead to a little bit of a wet commute.
South to southwesterly winds are still forecast to usher warm, moisture air northward across the Twin Cities through the day to day allowing dewpoints to surge into the mid to upper 60s, with low to middle 70 dewpoints just to the west-southwest of the Metro. Lingering cloud cover from morning showers keeps air temperatures slightly cooler than previously thought, but they are still forecast to reach the low 90s. The combination of muggy conditions and air temperatures in the low 90s will allow for ample instability to develop this afternoon and into the evening hours to support the development of isolated showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe in nature. It could also support heat indices reaching the middle to upper 90s.
The biggest threat from these would be isolated large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain that could result in flooding. Weak forcing remains a limiting factor for storm development this afternoon with the better-forcing west of the Twin Cities, The greatest threat time for showers or storms across the Twin Cities Metro this afternoon looks to be around and after 3 PM and into the late evening hours which is when we see the greatest instability present across the region. This activity will once again be isolated to scattered in nature, so not all areas will see these storms chances.
Slight Risk (2 out of 5) Severe Weather Threat - Tuesday [Tomorrow]
The 4th of July continues to be the day with the greatest chance for severe weather potential, but also a little more complicated forecast as activity from late tonight that could linger into tomorrow morning could impact storm development tomorrow. Like today, tomorrow is forecast to also be hot and muggy, with dewpoints once again forecast to reach the middle to upper 60s across the Twin Cities, with a few models even showing the low 70s could be possible just ahead of the passing of the cold front. Also like today, the latest model guidance has temperatures slightly cooler than were initially forecast, with most areas to be in the middle to upper 80s, select few getting into the low 90s can't be ruled out though. Heat indices could once again reach the middle to upper 90s. With a weak cold front expected to work across the region tomorrow, the little better forcing will support a slightly higher severe weather chance and overall storm coverage than today will. Once again, the greatest threat will likely be isolated to scattered large hail and damaging winds, with localized heavy, flooding rain possible.
While lingering showers and storms from late tonight into tomorrow morning could impact development later in the day, it appears precipitation chances could begin as early as the 3 PM timeframe with a few isolated showers and a storm or two being possible with peak daytime heating. As we get into the evening hours, those precipitation chances will be on the increase as the weak cold front advances into the region from the west-northwest. The greatest shower and storm chances look to be from 7 PM to Midnight as scattered showers and storms work across the Twin Cities Region with the cold front passage.
There does seem to be some uncertainty between models on overall storm coverage and timing, leading to uncertainty and low to moderate confidence in the overall forecast.
Be sure to have ways to receive severe weather alerts today and tomorrow, and remember to be weather aware. We will continue to monitor the latest forecast and will post updates as necessary. For weather alerts for the Twin Cities area, you can follow Limitless Media's Facebook page linked below!
